2026 American Express Preview

The PGA TOUR calendar is officially rolling, and after a short opening stretch in Hawaii that wrapped up with last week’s Sony Open, the spotlight now shifts to the California desert for The American Express in La Quinta. This tournament has long carved out its own identity, combining a relaxed pro-am setting with a somewhat demanding, but very vulnerable three-course rotation that opens the door for low numbers but also provides challenges to players in order for them to stay aggressive while adapting quickly to the conditions. The first three rounds will rotate the field through Pete Dye’s Stadium Course at PGA West and the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, as well as La Quinta Country Club, before a 54-hole cut narrows the field ahead of Sunday’s final round back on the Stadium Course. While both the Nicklaus Course and La Quinta Country Club continue to rank among the most scoreable venues on TOUR, the Stadium Course presents a stiffer test after its recent renovation, placing greater importance on power, confident driving, and precise execution off the tee. Big hitters are afforded opportunities to attack across all three layouts, particularly on the par 5s, but Dye’s trademark use of water, bunkering, and visual pressure means mistakes are still costly, especially as the tournament reaches its closing stages. With typically calm desert conditions and receptive greens encouraging low numbers, success this week often comes down to balancing aggression with discipline. With that framework in mind, here’s a closer look at the players best equipped to thrive in La Quinta and my final predictions as the second weekend of the 2026 season approaches: Sepp Straka Sepp Straka put together a quietly impressive 2025 season, highlighted by one of his two victories coming at last year’s American Express, and he returns to La Quinta with a chance to revisit the site of that breakthrough. While he hasn’t lifted another trophy since his Truist Championship win last May in Philadelphia, his form has remained competitive throughout the year, even if it has come in stretches rather than a steady climb. Straka was particularly sharp during the early stages of last season’s West Coast swing, recording top-15 finishes in four of his first five starts before a rare stumble with a missed cut at the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines, and he closed the year on a positive note with a third-place showing at the Hero World Challenge. From a statistical standpoint, his game continues to align perfectly with what this event demands. He was among the TOUR’s most precise wedge players last season, ranking inside the top five in approach proximity from 50 to 125 yards and seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach, a combination that plays especially well on resort-style courses where scoring chances are abundant. Pair that with strong par-5 production, efficient driving, and a scoring average comfortably under 70, and it’s easy to understand why he looks so comfortable navigating this three-course rotation. While repeating as champion is never easy in a field this deep, Straka’s history here and the natural fit between his skill set and these layouts make him a player worth watching closely as the weekend unfolds and the leaderboard begins to take shape. Nick Dunlap After bursting onto the scene with a win here in 2024 as an amateur, Nick Dunlap enters the 2026 American Express carrying both the confidence of past success and the pressure of finding his mojo again as his previous couple of seasons have been a mixed bag for the former Alabama standout following his quick transition onto the PGA TOUR. In 2025, he only posted two top-10s and four top-25 finishes across 25 starts, struggled to maintain consistency, and made just 13 cuts, while finishing outside the top 100 in many statistical categories. Still, Dunlap has always shown an uncanny ability to rise to the occasion at La Quinta, and he knows better than anyone what it takes to navigate the three-course rotation, where his ability to manage around the greens should help him put up the low scores needed to perform well. While his 2026 campaign is just getting started with a T60 at the Sony Open last week, this is precisely the kind of venue and format that can help a player like him rediscover his groove. His putting and scrambling numbers from last season suggest that, when dialed in, he can contend on these receptive, Bermuda-greened layouts. Even at 177th in the Official World Golf Ranking, Dunlap’s familiarity with this event and his ability to handle the unique pressures of a large pro-am field make him one to watch. If he can string together clean rounds across the three venues, there’s little reason he can’t find himself inside the cut and pushing toward a top-25 finish once again. Ben Griffin Ben Griffin is coming off of the best season of his career and making his fourth appearance at The American Express, and after back-to-back top-10 finishes in 2024 and 2025, he’ll enter the 2026 edition as one of the more heavily backed players to contend in the Coachella Valley. The former North Carolina Tar Heel collected his first three career TOUR wins at the Zurich Classic alongside Andrew Novak, the Charles Schwab Challenge, and the World Wide Technology Championship, while also finishing runner-up at the Memorial Tournament and the Procore Championship. That string of results helped him establish himself as one of the most consistent and well-rounded players on TOUR, and his game translates nicely to the unique challenges of a three-course rotation. Griffin’s strength lies in his balance across the bag: he ranks in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Total, par 3 scoring, and Scoring Average, while also maintaining solid marks in scrambling, sand saves, and approach proximity. While the Pete Dye Stadium Course will demand precision and strategic aggression, Griffin’s prior success at the event and familiarity with desert conditions make him well-equipped to handle the wind, greens, and hazards that can bite aggressive players. He’s already posted a T19 finish at last week’s Sony Open to kick off 2026, showing his game is sharp early in the season. Given his combination of form, experience at The American Express, and statistical balance, Griffin is a natural candidate to repeat as a contender and could easily find himself near the top of the leaderboard again in the desert. Now, let’s go ahead and dive right into my top predictions for the weekend: 3. Top 20: Patrick Cantlay Patrick Cantlay has been the model of consistency on the PGA TOUR for several seasons, and last year was no exception. There are few players as dependable as he is when the TOUR heads out west. A Southern California native, Cantlay has always been comfortable on layouts like PGA West, which have consistently brought out some of his best golf. They might call him Patty Ice, but his calm, controlled approach tends to shine even more in familiar West Coast conditions, and his track record at The American Express supports that, with three top-10 finishes in his last five appearances, including a T5 last year and a runner-up in 2021. His statistical profile fits this event perfectly, as he ranked second on TOUR in par-4 scoring, ninth in Strokes Gained: Total, and inside the top 15 in both Tee-to-Green and Approach play last season, all traits that translate well across these three venues. Cantlay doesn’t need to overpower the courses to contend, as his iron play, par-4 efficiency, and ability to minimize mistakes keep him in the mix throughout the week. Looking at his track record and comfort level at PGA West, I fully expect him to finish inside the top 20 and potentially earn even a top-10 finish this week and would be pleasantly surprised if he didn’t. 2. Top 10: Robert MacIntyre Robert MacIntyre wrapped up the 2025 season playing some of the best golf of his career, and that momentum has carried straight into the new year. He enters The American Express fresh off a share of fourth at last week’s Sony Open, where a closing-round 63 pushed him firmly into the mix and reinforced just how high his ceiling has become. This will be only his second start at this event after missing the cut here in 2024, but that result feels largely irrelevant given the strides he has made since then. MacIntyre showed last season that desert golf suits his eye, most notably at TPC Scottsdale, and his recent body of work suggests he’s capable of contending in almost any setting. Now ranked sixth in the Official World Golf Ranking and among the highest-ranked players in the field, he arrives in La Quinta with the type of form that thrives in birdie-friendly conditions. His statistical profile backs it up, as he sits 14th in Strokes Gained: Total, ranks inside the top 15 in long-iron proximity from 250 to 275 yards, and places top 20 in both sand saves and putting inside ten feet. Those strengths should translate seamlessly across PGA West’s three-course rotation, and with his consistency on the rise, missed cuts becoming increasingly rare, and confidence building after several close calls last season, MacIntyre looks well positioned to spend the weekend near the top of the leaderboard and has all the tools to finish comfortably inside the top 10. 1. Winner: Scottie Scheffler Much like last season, it’s hard to begin this week’s discussion anywhere other than with Scottie Scheffler, who enters The American Express as the measuring stick for the entire field. Coming off a historic 2025 campaign that belongs in the same conversation as the most dominant seasons the PGA TOUR has seen since Tiger Woods in the early 2000s, Scheffler opens his 2026 schedule as the clear standard everyone else is chasing. The world’s top-ranked golfer is making his fifth career appearance at this event and his first return to La Quinta since 2024, and while a top-10 finish has eluded him here so far, the context tells a different story. Those results came before he evolved into the most relentless week-to-week force in professional golf, and even then he still managed three consecutive top-25 finishes across these courses. The three-course rotation at PGA West plays directly into his strengths, rewarding elite ball-striking, precise wedge play, and constant pressure on par 4s and par 5s. From a statistical standpoint, his profile borders on unfair, as he led the TOUR last season in Strokes Gained: Total, Tee-to-Green, and Approach, while also ranking first in proximity, par-4 scoring, scoring average, and birdie production. Once the field is trimmed and play returns exclusively to the Stadium Course, his ability to separate from the pack becomes even more pronounced. If Scheffler isn’t in control of this tournament late on Sunday, it would come as a genuine surprise, as few players are better equipped to dominate a low-scoring week that demands sustained aggression and elite execution.